Silver has rejected prices lower than $21.5 and higher than ~$30.0 for more than a year. What it hasn’t done, until recently, is cross below its 50-day simple moving average in this timeframe. Consequently, we might expect a very strong retest of the $21.5 level in the next couple of weeks. Strengthening this proposition, the alligator bands have separated, and are creating some distance between themselves. There is very little indication that a reversal is imminent.
Fundamentally, the impetus could be there for silver to be pushed much lower
The USD, which reached a ten-month high, had absorbed the news that the Fed was likely to slow the pace of asset purchases before year’s end. Naturally, we might have expected the USD to jump on such information, and as an inverse correlate, silver to fall.
During the Wednesday US session, after the release of the Fed minutes, the USD index fell from 93.15 to 93.05. However, in early Asian trading, the USD then powered its way up to 93.30. The slight drop on Wednesday could be attributable to the Fed’s unassertive tone and the presence of some dissenting voices. In any case, silver isn’t going to be benefiting from a weak USD any time soon.
Can silver turn things around?
Silver has favored a position in the lower half of its ranging band. So, an extra significant catalyst will have to present itself to push silver above $27.0 and, once that hurdle is cleared, onward to $30.0.
For one, global demand would have to really pick up, and pick up at a greater rate than that which an average COVID recovery could spur.
What silver needs is the green revolution. Such a proposition is not entirely preposterous. This brings me to the reason I wanted to write this article in the first place.
The Biden administration’s silver lining
Last week, the Biden Administration announced that it has targeted 40% of the electrical energy consumed in the US to be generated by solar panels by the year 2035. Currently, the US produces roughly 3% of its electricity via Solar.
As it stands, solar panel manufacturers are responsible for approximately 20% (or 3,000 pounds) of global industrial silver consumption. Thus, regardless of how the US accomplishes its goal (technological innovation and government incentives, no doubt), the flow-on effect for silver could be the significant catalyst it needs to build, and sustain, some significant gains.